Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa has launched his formal campaign for President, making him the first candidate to enter the race. (Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-CA, held a fairly lackluster press conference announcing his plans to pursue a formal campaign.) My money says that Vilsack v. Hunter will likely not be the final match-up. But that's the beauty of this presidential race. It's the most open race since the 1920s, representing the first time in more than 70 years that a sitting President or Vice-President will not be one of the nominees. Vilsack's intentions are pretty straightforward. It's no surprise that he's become the first to enter the race. He doesn't want his fellow Iowans -- of course the first to vote on the Democratic nominee -- to further contemplate supporting Edwards or Hillary Clinton. It's possible that the Iowa caucus will lose it's drama with Vilsack running, because the results may indicate mere sentimental support. But let's not call Vilsack a shoe-in even in Iowa. There's a huge difference between loving your governor and thinking he'd make a perfect President. We'll see.
Meanwhile, Mitt Romney is gaining more attention that previously thought possible. I have said for several months that he is the likely nominee. He's a fantastic speaker, he's good-looking, and he agrees with religious conservatives without seeming like a bigot, zealot, or opportunist. John McCain and Rudy Guiliani are favorites now, but this could simply reflect name recognition. The one problem: Romney is Mormon, which means that a great deal of Christians think he's on the way to hell regardless of his opposition to abortion and gay marriage. Prediction: Some of the most interesting dialogue to come out of the 2008 race will be about Mormonism -- and implicitly, the unspoken prerequisities for representing the Christian right. We have witnessed the fall of Rick Santorum, and I suggest the Brownback, Huckabee and Gingrich campaigns have ended before they started. Thus the heir apparent to Christian right politics is someone who church is labeled an anti-Christian, unbiblical cult by a great deal of the serious evangelical community.
Anybody halfway interested in politics should be on the edge of their seats right now and up until election day 2008. 2004 was a boring, predictable election in comparison. No less than 30 different people have a reasonable chance at becoming the next President, and their campaigns will expose the multitude of policy differences, prejudices, unconventional alliances, and rhetorical struggles in American politics today. Our country had several unbelievably exciting elections in the 20th century: Truman v. Dewey (1948), Kennedy v. Nixon (1960), and Humphrey v. Nixon (1968) probably top them all. 2008 will be unprecedented in comparison. The race starts today, with a little-known, locally popular former governor of Iowa. He doesn't have a chance. But the more I turn every possibility over in my mind, the stupider those words sound.



